Understanding pooled subjective probability estimates

DOI10.1016/S0165-4896(00)00053-6MaRDI QIDQ5932214zbMATH OpenWikidataFDO

Authors Thomas S. Wallsten, Adele Diederich

Publication date 6 May 2001

Published in Mathematical Social Sciences (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-4896(00)00053-6

zbMATH Keywords

calibrationsubjective probabilitydiagnosticitypooling estimates

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Decision theory (91B06) Statistical methods; economic indices and measures (91B82)

Recommendations

• Aggregating disparate estimates of chance
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Cites work

• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 107943 (Why is no real title available?)
• Combining probability distributions: A critique and an annotated bibliography
• Modeling expert judgements for Bayesian updating
• On the laws of large numbers for nonnegative random variables
• Unanimity and Compromise Among Probability Forecasters

Cited in

(3)

• Why are experts correlated? Decomposing correlations between judges
• Partial information framework: model-based aggregation of estimates from diverse information sources
• Two reasons to make aggregated probability forecasts more extreme

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