Confinement strategies in a simple SIR model
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Publication:2235103
DOI10.1134/S1560354720060015zbMATH Open1471.92337arXiv2004.09314MaRDI QIDQ2235103FDOQ2235103
Authors: Mathilde Badoual, Gilberto Medeiros Nakamura, B. Grammaticos 
Publication date: 20 October 2021
Published in: Regular and Chaotic Dynamics (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: We propose a simple SIR model in order to investigate the impact of various confinement strategies on a most virulent epidemic. Our approach is motivated by the current COVID-19 pandemic. The main hypothesis is the existence of two populations of susceptible persons, one which obeys confinement and for which the infection rate does not exceed 1, and a population which, being non confined for various imperatives, can be substantially more infective. The model, initially formulated as a differential system, is discretised following a specific procedure, the discrete system serving as an integrator for the differential one. Our model is calibrated so as to correspond to what is observed in the COVID-19 epidemic. Several conclusions can be reached, despite the very simple structure of our model. First, it is not possible to pinpoint the genesis of the epidemic by just analysing data from when the epidemic is in full swing. It may well turn out that the epidemic has reached a sizeable part of the world months before it became noticeable. Concerning the confinement scenarios, a universal feature of all our simulations is that relaxing the lockdown constraints leads to a rekindling of the epidemic. Thus we sought the conditions for the second epidemic peak to be lower than the first one. This is possible in all the scenarios considered (abrupt, progressive or stepwise exit) but typically a progressive exit can start earlier than an abrupt one. However, by the time the progressive exit is complete, the overall confinement times are not too different. From our results, the most promising strategy is that of a stepwise exit. And in fact its implementation could be quite feasible, with the major part of the population (minus the fragile groups) exiting simultaneously but obeying rigorous distancing constraints.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.09314
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Epidemiology (92D30) Dynamical systems in biology (37N25) Nonlinear ordinary differential equations and systems (34A34) Simulation of dynamical systems (37M05) Stability theory for difference equations (39A30) Finite difference and finite volume methods for ordinary differential equations (65L12)
Cites Work
Cited In (15)
- On the threshold of release of confinement in an epidemic SEIR model taking into account the protective effect of mask
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- Dynamics of partially mitigated multi-phasic epidemics at low susceptible depletion: phases of COVID-19 control in Italy as case study
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- Recruitment effects on the evolution of epidemics in a simple SIR model
- The turning point and end of an expanding epidemic cannot be precisely forecast
- Lifting the COVID-19 lockdown: different scenarios for France
- Lifting mobility restrictions and the effect of superspreading events on the short-term dynamics of COVID-19
- Effects of latency and age structure on the dynamics and containment of COVID-19
- A discrete epidemic model and a zigzag strategy for curbing the Covid-19 outbreak and for lifting the lockdown
- How to reduce epidemic peaks keeping under control the time-span of the epidemic
- Modified SIR compartmental epidemic model with social distancing and hospital saturation applied to the COVID-19 pandemic
- SIR model-based verification of effect of COVID-19 contact-confirming application (COCOA) on reducing infectors in Japan
- Confinement tonicity on epidemic spreading
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