The lower tail of the half-space KPZ equation

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Abstract: We establish the first tight bound on the lower tail probability of the half-space KPZ equation with Neumann boundary parameter A=1/2 and narrow-wedge initial data. When the tail depth is of order T2/3, the lower bound demonstrates a crossover between a regime of super-exponential decay with exponent frac52 (and leading pre-factor frac215piT1/3) and a regime with exponent 3 (and leading pre-factor frac124); the upper bound demonstrates a crossover between a regime with exponent frac32 (and arbitrarily small pre-factor) and a regime with exponent 3 (and leading pre-factor frac124). We show that, given a crude leading-order asymptotic in the Stokes region (Definition 1.7, first defined in (Duke Math J., [Bot17])) for the Ablowitz-Segur solution to the Painlev'e II equation, the upper bound on the lower tail probability can be improved to demonstrate the same crossover as the lower bound. We also establish novel bounds on the large deviations of the GOE point process.



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