A choice prediction competition for market entry games: an introduction
Summary: A choice prediction competition is organized that focuses on decisions from experience in market entry games (\url{http://sites.google.com/site/gpredcomp/} and \url{http://www.mdpi.com/si/games/predict-behavior/}). The competition is based on two experiments: An estimation experiment, and a competition experiment. The two experiments use the same methods and subject pool, and examine games randomly selected from the same distribution. The current introductory paper presents the results of the estimation experiment, and clarifies the descriptive value of several baseline models. The experimental results reveal the robustness of eight behavioral tendencies that were documented in previous studies of market entry games and individual decisions from experience. The best baseline model (I-SAW) assumes reliance on small samples of experiences, and strong inertia when the recent results are not surprising. The competition experiment will be run in May 2010 (after the completion of this introduction), but they will not be revealed until September. To participate in the competition, researchers are asked to E-mail the organizers models (implemented in computer programs) that read the incentive structure as input, and derive the predicted behavior as an output. The submitted models will be ranked based on their prediction error. The winners of the competition will be invited to publish a paper that describes their model.
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- Games of competition in a stochastic environment
- An Evaluation of Econometric Models of Adaptive Learning
- An Experimental Study of Belief Learning Using Elicited Beliefs
- An initial implementation of the Turing tournament to learning in repeated two-person games
- Coordination, ``Magic, and reinforcement learning in a market entry game
- Evaluating generalizability and parameter consistency in learning models
- Experience-weighted Attraction Learning in Normal Form Games
- Foregone with the wind: Indirect payoff information and its implications for choice
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3758035 (Why is no real title available?)
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- Correction to: ``A choice prediction competition for market entry games: an introduction
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- Bounded memory, inertia, sampling and weighting model for market entry games
- Market entry prediction competition 2010
- A choice prediction competition for social preferences in simple extensive form games: an introduction
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- Competing against experienced and inexperienced players
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