The potential for bias in principal causal effect estimation when treatment received depends on a key covariate

DOI10.1214/11-AOAS477MaRDI QIDQ652349zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Corwin Matthew Zigler, Thomas R. Belin

Publication date 14 December 2011

Published in The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1111.1509

zbMATH Keywords

noncomplianceprincipal stratificationcomplier average causal effectprincipal effect

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Numerical analysis or methods applied to Markov chains (65C40) Medical applications (general) (92C50) General considerations in statistical decision theory (62C05)

Abstract: Motivated by a potential-outcomes perspective, the idea of principal stratification has been widely recognized for its relevance in settings susceptible to posttreatment selection bias such as randomized clinical trials where treatment received can differ from treatment assigned. In one such setting, we address subtleties involved in inference for causal effects when using a key covariate to predict membership in latent principal strata. We show that when treatment received can differ from treatment assigned in both study arms, incorporating a stratum-predictive covariate can make estimates of the "complier average causal effect" (CACE) derive from observations in the two treatment arms with different covariate distributions. Adopting a Bayesian perspective and using Markov chain Monte Carlo for computation, we develop posterior checks that characterize the extent to which incorporating the pretreatment covariate endangers estimation of the CACE. We apply the method to analyze a clinical trial comparing two treatments for jaw fractures in which the study protocol allowed surgeons to overrule both possible randomized treatment assignments based on their clinical judgment and the data contained a key covariate (injury severity) predictive of treatment received.

Recommendations

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Cited in

(4)

• Simple methods for the estimation and sensitivity analysis of principal strata effects using marginal structural models: application to a bone fracture prevention trial
• Bayesian phase II clinical trial design with noncompliance
• A likelihood-based analysis for relaxing the exclusion restriction in randomized experiments with noncompliance
• The potential for bias in principal causal effect estimation when treatment received depends on a key covariate

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