Parameter priors for directed acyclic graphical models and the characterization of several probability distributions

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Abstract: We develop simple methods for constructing parameter priors for model choice among Directed Acyclic Graphical (DAG) models. In particular, we introduce several assumptions that permit the construction of parameter priors for a large number of DAG models from a small set of assessments. We then present a method for directly computing the marginal likelihood of every DAG model given a random sample with no missing observations. We apply this methodology to Gaussian DAG models which consist of a recursive set of linear regression models. We show that the only parameter prior for complete Gaussian DAG models that satisfies our assumptions is the normal-Wishart distribution. Our analysis is based on the following new characterization of the Wishart distribution: let W be an nimesn, nge3, positive-definite symmetric matrix of random variables and f(W) be a pdf of W. Then, f(W) is a Wishart distribution if and only if W11W12W221W'12 is independent of W12,W22 for every block partitioning W11,W12,W'12,W22 of W. Similar characterizations of the normal and normal-Wishart distributions are provided as well.




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