A new coalescent for seed-bank models

DOI10.1214/15-AAP1106zbMATH Open1339.60137arXiv1411.4747OpenAlexW1539421726WikidataQ110704468 ScholiaQ110704468MaRDI QIDQ292910FDOQ292910

Authors: Jochen Blath, Adrián González Casanova, N. Kurt, Maite Wilke-Berenguer 

Publication date: 9 June 2016

Published in: The Annals of Applied Probability (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We identify a new natural coalescent structure, which we call the seed-bank coalescent, that describes the gene genealogy of populations under the influence of a strong seed-bank effect, where "dormant forms" of individuals (such as seeds or spores) may jump a significant number of generations before joining the "active" population. Mathematically, our seed-bank coalescent appears as scaling limit in a Wright-Fisher model with geometric seed-bank age structure if the average time of seed dormancy scales with the order of the total population size $N$. This extends earlier results of Kaj, Krone and Lascoux [J. Appl. Probab. 38 (2011) 285-300] who show that the genealogy of a Wright-Fisher model in the presence of a "weak" seed-bank effect is given by a suitably time-changed Kingman coalescent. The qualitatively new feature of the seed-bank coalescent is that ancestral lineages are independently blocked at a certain rate from taking part in coalescence events, thus strongly altering the predictions of classical coalescent models. In particular, the seed-bank coalescent "does not come down from infinity," and the time to the most recent common ancestor of a sample of size $n$ grows like $loglogn$. This is in line with the empirical observation that seed-banks drastically increase genetic variability in a population and indicates how they may serve as a buffer against other evolutionary forces such as genetic drift and selection.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1411.4747

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zbMATH Keywords

coalescentage structureseed-bank modelsWright-Fisher model

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Genetics and epigenetics (92D10) Interacting random processes; statistical mechanics type models; percolation theory (60K35) Genetic algebras (17D92)

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Cited In (36)

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