The threshold behaviour of epidemic models

DOI10.2307/3213797MaRDI QIDQ3670959zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Frank Ball

Publication date 1983

Published in Journal of Applied Probability (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.2307/3213797

zbMATH Keywords

almost sure convergence of the total sizeasymptotic behaviour of general stochastic epidemicsepidemic modelsgeographical spreadsize of epidemicstrong convergencethreshold theoremstime-homogeneous birth-and-death process

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Branching processes (Galton-Watson, birth-and-death, etc.) (60J80) Applications of branching processes (60J85) Population dynamics (general) (92D25)

Cited in

(68)

• The asymptotic final size distribution of reducible multitype Reed-Frost processes
• Reproduction numbers and thresholds in stochastic epidemic models. I: Homogeneous populations
• Dynamic population epidemic models
• The effect of preferential mixing on the growth of an epidemic
• Limit theorems for a random graph epidemic model
• Statistical inference for a multitype epidemic model
• Strong approximations for epidemic models
• The probability of extinction of infectious salmon anemia virus in one and two patches
• The distribution of the time taken for an epidemic to spread between two communities
• A central limit theorem for the gossip process
• SIR dynamics in random networks with communities
• Separate roles of the latent and infectious periods in shaping the relation between the basic reproduction number and the intrinsic growth rate of infectious disease outbreaks
• Stochastic and deterministic models for SIS epidemics among a population partitioned into households
• A computer exploration of some properties of nonlinear stochastic partnership models for sexually transmitted diseases with stages
• A note on the estimation of the initial number of susceptible individuals in the general epidemic model
• A general model for stochastic SIR epidemics with two levels of mixing
• Collective epidemic models
• Stochastic methodology for the study of an epidemic decay phase, based on a branching model
• Effective degree household network disease model
• A network with tunable clustering, degree correlation and degree distribution, and an epidemic thereon
• Some properties of an estimator for the basic reproduction number of the general epidemic model
• Approximation of epidemics by inhomogeneous birth-and-death processes
• A direct comparison of methods for assessing the threat from emerging infectious diseases in seasonally varying environments
• A stochastic SIR model on a graph with epidemiological and population dynamics occurring over the same time scale
• Discrete stochastic metapopulation model with arbitrarily distributed infectious period
• A stochastic tick-borne disease model: exploring the probability of pathogen persistence
• Relations between deterministic and stochastic thresholds for disease extinction in continuous- and discrete-time infectious disease models
• On the probability of extinction in a periodic environment
• Network epidemic models with two levels of mixing
• A semi-stochastic model for Salmonella infection in a multi-group herd
• Strong approximations for mobile population epidemic models
• The role of heterogeneity on the invasion probability of mosquito-borne diseases in multi-host models
• Epidemic modelling: aspects where stochasticity matters
• A practical guide to mathematical methods for estimating infectious disease outbreak risks
• The probability of epidemic fade-out is non-monotonic in transmission rate for the Markovian SIR model with demography
• Coupling a branching process to an infinite dimensional epidemic process
• Threshold behaviour of emerging epidemics featuring contact tracing
• SIR epidemics on random graphs with a fixed degree sequence
• From size to age and type structure dependent branching: a first step to sexual reproduction in general population processes
• A household SIR epidemic model incorporating time of day effects
• The Early Stage Behaviour of a Stochastic SIR Epidemic with Term-Time Forcing
• Extinction Times in Multitype Markov Branching Processes
• Probability of a disease outbreak in stochastic multipatch epidemic models
• The effect of population heterogeneities upon spread of infection
• The basic reproduction number and the probability of extinction for a dynamic epidemic model
• Estimations of a threshold parameter in cox regression
• Continuum approximation of invasion probabilities
• Estimating the basic reproduction number from surveillance data on past epidemics
• Stochastic monotonicity and continuity properties of functions defined on Crump-Mode-Jagers branching processes, with application to vaccination in epidemic modelling
• The concept of R_o in epidemic theory
• Revisiting SIR in the age of COVID-19: explicit solutions and control problems
• An ephemerally self-exciting point process
• The Limiting Behaviour of Hanski's Incidence Function Metapopulation Model
• Couplings for locally branching epidemic processes
• Design issues for studies of infectious diseases
• The size of a Markovian SIR epidemic given only removal data
• Asymptotic persistence time formulae for multitype birth–death processes
• Strong convergence of an epidemic model with mixing groups
• Effective degree network disease models
• Approximation methods for analyzing multiscale stochastic vector-borne epidemic models
• Bayesian estimation of the offspring mean in branching processes: application to infectious disease data
• Computing the extinction path for epidemic models
• Investigating seasonal disease emergence and extinction in stochastic epidemic models
• Superinfection and the hypnozoite reservoir for \textit{Plasmodium vivax}: a multitype branching process approximation
• Stochastic epidemic models featuring contact tracing with delays
• Modeling computer virus prevalence with a susceptible-infected-susceptible model with reintroduction
• The relationship between real-time and discrete-generation models of epidemic spread
• Stochastic epidemic models: a survey

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