A Definition of Subjective Probability
From MaRDI portal
Publication:5721442
DOI10.1214/aoms/1177704255zbMath0114.07204OpenAlexW2003996846WikidataQ91394808 ScholiaQ91394808MaRDI QIDQ5721442
Robert John Aumann, Francis John Anscombe
Publication date: 1963
Published in: The Annals of Mathematical Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)
Full work available at URL: https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177704255
Related Items
Unnamed Item, Characterizing optimism amd pessimism directly through comonotonicity, The Topology of Change: Foundations of Probability with Black Swans, Policy discrimination with and without interpersonal comparisons of utility, Analogy in Decision Making, An Econometric Model Based on the Maxmin Expected Utility Model: An Application to Earthquake Insurance, Decisions under risk and uncertainty: A survey of recent developments, Imprecise information and subjective belief, The ex ante aggregation of opinions under uncertainty, Twofold multiprior preferences and failures of contingent reasoning, Stochastic choice and rational inattention, How to make ambiguous strategies, Flexible Bayesian analysis of first price auctions using a simulated likelihood, Non-Bayesian correlated equilibrium as an expression of non-Bayesian rationality, A Savage-Like Representation Theorem for Preferences on Multi-acts, Distributionally robust portfolio maximization and marginal utility pricing in one period financial markets, Preference robust state-dependent distortion risk measure on act space and its application in optimal decision making, Subjective expected utility through stochastic independence, Strength of preference over complementary pairs axiomatizes alpha-MEU preferences, Expected utility in Savage's framework without the completeness axiom, Conditional decisions under objective and subjective ambiguity in Dempster-Shafer theory, On the Ellsberg and Machina paradoxes, A qualitative approach to quantum probability, Derivations of large classes of facet defining inequalities of the weak order polytope using ranking structures, Ellsberg meets Keynes at an urn, Minimax decision rules for planning under uncertainty: drawbacks and remedies, Nonlinear desirability theory, Source and rank-dependent utility, Randomizing without randomness, Choquet expected discounted utility, Updating variational (Bewley) preferences, Subjective complexity under uncertainty, A framework for measures of risk under uncertainty, Reinforcement Learning, Bit by Bit, Preference for knowledge, Desirability foundations of robust rational decision making, Subjective causal networks and indeterminate suppositional credences, Expected utility theory, Jeffrey's decision theory, and the paradoxes, The sure-thing principle, Anchored belief updating from recommendations, Social roles and competitiveness: my willingness to compete depends on who I am (supposed to be), An axiomatic characterization of Bayesian updating, Contextual Mechanism Design, A test of (weak) certainty independence, Subjective expected utility with signed threshold, Social image concern and reference point formation, Beyond uncertainty aversion, Procurements with Bidder Asymmetry in Cost and Risk-Aversion, Irresolute choice behavior, The Impact of the Structure of the Payoff Matrix on the Final Decision made Under Uncertainty, Fundamental Principles of Modeling in Macroeconomics, Betting against the Zen monk: on preferences and partial belief, Decision Theory Without “Independence” or Without “Ordering”, Ambiguity and the Bayesian Paradigm, State-Dependent Utilities, Unnamed Item, Characterizations of Smooth Ambiguity Based on Continuous and Discrete Data, Unnamed Item, The Polytope of Fuzzy Measures and Its Adjacency Graph, COHERENT ACCEPTABILITY MEASURES IN MULTIPERIOD MODELS, Estimating the Null Distribution to Adjust Observed Confidence Levels for Genome-Scale Screening, Constructive decision theory, Unnamed Item, Expected qualitative utility maximization, Stable equilibrium in beliefs in extensive games with perfect information, Representing subjective orderings of random variables: An extension, Nonmonotonic Choquet integrals, On the foundations of statistics and decision theory, Una aplicacion de la teoria de la utilidad de Von Neumann a la probabilidad subjetiva, Do Bayesians Learn Their Way Out of Ambiguity?, The value of information and the value of awareness, The Anscombe-Aumann representation and the independence axiom: a reconsideration, Solution concepts for games with ambiguous payoffs, Una caracterizacion conjunta de la probabilidad subjetiva y de la utilidad, Identifying subjective beliefs in subjective state space models, PROBABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY: THE LEGACY OF GEORGESCU‐ROEGEN, Is reliability a new science? A paper from the panel session held at the 10th International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Reliability, Unnamed Item, A foundation for probabilistic beliefs with or without atoms, Paraconsistent conjectural deduction based on logical entropy measures I: C-systems as non-standard inference framework, Risk Measures and Robust Optimization Problems, DEMPSTER BELIEF FUNCTIONS ARE BASED ON THE PRINCIPLE OF COMPLETE IGNORANCE, Robust utility maximization of terminal wealth with drift and volatility uncertainty, The Role of Expert Judgment in Statistical Inference and Evidence-Based Decision-Making, A minimal extension of Bayesian decision theory, Foundations of probability, Expected utility theory and inner and outer measures of loss aversion, Harsanyi's theorem without the sure-thing principle: on the consistent aggregation of monotonic Bernoullian and Archimedean preferences, A theory of stochastic choice under uncertainty, Maxmin weighted expected utility: a simpler characterization, Preferences in quantum games, On stochastic independence under ambiguity, Optimal consumption and portfolio choice with ambiguous interest rates and volatility, Dynamic consistency, valuable information and subjective beliefs, Reference dependent ambiguity, Objective and subjective rationality and decisions with the best and worst case in mind, Pessimism and optimism towards new discoveries, Savage vs. Anscombe-Aumann: an experimental investigation of ambiguity frameworks, On the polytope of non-additive measures, Exactly what happens after the Anscombe-Aumann race?, Foundations of neo-Bayesian statistics, Incomplete preferences and confidence, Lexicographic probability, conditional probability, and nonstandard probability, A simple model of cumulative prospect theory, Randomization and dynamic consistency, Decision analysis under ambiguity, Minimax regret and strategic uncertainty, Commitment and anticipated utilitarianism, Crisp monetary acts in multiple-priors models of decision under ambiguity, Subjective probability, confidence, and Bayesian updating, Awareness-dependent subjective expected utility, Adaptive utility and trial aversion, Cobb-Douglas preferences under uncertainty, Bayesian chance, Maxmin expected utility with additivity on unambiguous events, Consistent probability attitudes, Optimism and firm formation, Subjective multi-prior probability: a representation of a partial likelihood relation, Riskiness for sets of gambles, Purely subjective maxmin expected utility, A theory of subjective learning, Statistical decisions under ambiguity, On the confidence preferences model, Relative concave utility for risk and ambiguity, Uncertainty averse preferences, Asset pricing in a Lucas fruit-tree economy with the best and worst in mind, A theorem for Bayesian group decisions, Comparative risk aversion: a formal approach with applications to saving behavior, A theory of Bayesian decision making with action-dependent subjective probabilities, Event-separability in the Ellsberg urn, Informational efficiency with ambiguous information, Attitudes toward uncertainty and randomization: an experimental study, Fuzzy logic-based generalized decision theory with imperfect information, Dynamically consistent updating of multiple prior beliefs -- an algorithmic approach, Probabilistic sophistication, second order stochastic dominance and uncertainty aversion, Jaffray's ideas on ambiguity, A limit theorem for equilibria under ambiguous belief correspondences, Ignorance and competence in choices under uncertainty, Subjective expected utility without preferences, Axioms for minimax regret choice correspondences, Robust monopoly pricing, Aggregation of multiple prior opinions, A decision-theoretic model of asset-price underreaction and overreaction to dividend news, Ambiguity aversion in multi-armed bandit problems, Choosing fair lotteries to defeat the competition, Lexicographic expected utility with a subjective state space, Probabilistic dominance and status quo bias, Prospect and Markowitz stochastic dominance, Sandwich games, A belief-based definition of ambiguity aversion, A note on affine aggregation, Awareness of unawareness: a theory of decision making in the face of ignorance, Separate aggregation of beliefs and values under ambiguity, Expected utility with uncertain probabilities theory, Bayesian learning with multiple priors and nonvanishing ambiguity, Mixed extensions of decision problems under uncertainty, Diversification preferences in the theory of choice, A class of incomplete and ambiguity averse preferences, Justifiable preferences, Identification and testing of modes in beliefs, Utility in case-based decision theory, Ambiguity made precise: A comparative foundation, The veil of public ignorance, Search and Knightian uncertainty, Modeling nonmonotone preferences: the case of utility smoothing, Following the traces: an introduction to conjoint measurement without transitivity and additivity, A simplified axiomatic approach to ambiguity aversion, Subjectively weighted linear utility, A proposal to extend expected utility in a quantum probabilistic framework, Reconciling Savage's and Luce's modeling of uncertainty: the best of both worlds, Comparative expectations, Worst-case expected utility, A behavioral foundation for fuzzy measures, SSB utility theory: An economic perspective, SSB utility theory and decision-making under uncertainty, Re-examining the law of iterated expectations for Choquet decision makers, Probabilistic sophistication without completeness, A general theory of subjective mixtures, Preference and belief: ambibiguity and competence in choice under uncertainty, Market uncertainty and the process of belief formation, A foundation of Bayesian statistics (how to deal with fears), Information evaluation under nonadditive expected utility, Great expectations. II: Generalized expected utility as a universal decision rule, The likelihood method for decision under uncertainty, A simple framework for the axiomatization of exponential and quasi-hyperbolic discounting, Purely subjective variational preferences, Minimizing regret in dynamic decision problems, Bayesian decision theory with action-dependent probabilities and risk attitudes, Expected utility theory from the frequentist perspective, What are the minimal requirements of rational choice? Arguments from the sequential-decision setting, The arbitrage pricing theorem with incomplete preferences, A representation of decision by analogy, A new approach to modeling decision-making under uncertainty, Dynamic semi-consistency, Context dependent beliefs, A dual approach to ambiguity aversion, An expected utility theory for state-dependent preferences, Subjective mean-variance preferences without expected utility, Preferences with changing ambiguity aversion, Rational preference and rationalizable choice, A mechanism for the elicitation of second-order belief and subjective information structure, Subjective expected utility with a spectral state space, Subjective expected utility with imperfect perception, Testing constant absolute and relative ambiguity aversion, Aggregation of Bayesian preferences: unanimity vs monotonicity, What are axiomatizations good for?, On some aspects of decision theory under uncertainty: rationality, price-probabilities and the Dutch book argument, Lexicographic probabilities and robustness, A bi-preference interplay between transitivity and completeness: reformulating and extending Schmeidler's theorem, Zhou's aggregation theorems with multiple welfare weights, Probabilistic subjective expected utility, Context dependence and consistency in dynamic choice under uncertainty: the case of anticipated regret, Social preference under twofold uncertainty, Expected utility theory with probability grids and preference formation, Social and strategic ambiguity versus betrayal aversion, Confidence and decision, On the indeterminacy of the representation of beliefs by probabilities, A two-parameter model of dispersion aversion, The emergence of ``fifty-fifty probability judgments through Bayesian updating under ambiguity, The sure thing principle, dilations, and objective probabilities, Familiarity breeds completeness, Mean-dispersion preferences and constant absolute uncertainty aversion, Uncertainty with ordinal likelihood information, Optimal portfolio with vector expected utility, Subjective probability over a subjective decision tree, An ordinal characterization of the linear opinion pool, An intertemporal model of growing awareness, Logic with numbers, A unified Bayesian decision theory, Unanimous subjective probabilities, Improving and benchmarking of algorithms for \(\Gamma \)-maximin, \( \Gamma \)-maximax and interval dominance, Scenario-based risk evaluation, Choice under uncertainty with the best and worst in mind: Neo-additive capacities, Decision-making through dominance plausible rule: new characterizations, Regret aversion and opportunity dependence, Choice theory when agents can randomize, Preferences with grades of indecisiveness, Preference-based belief operators, Identification of fuzzy measures from sample data with genetic algorithms, Decision-making problems with money incomes (losses) based on the combination of the principles of guaranteed and best results, Parameterization of the lottery model of nonparametric decision-making situation, Preference aggregation under uncertainty: Savage vs. Pareto, Subjective expected utility theory without states of the world, Coherent choice functions under uncertainty, Proper scoring rules with general preferences: a dual characterization of optimal reports, Hedging, ambiguity, and the reversal of order axiom, Justifiable choice, Ambiguity aversion in the small and in the large for weighted linear utility, Subjective expected utility with non-additive probabilities on finite state spaces, Extreme points of some families of non-additive measures, Obvious belief elicitation, Subjective foundation of possibility theory: Anscombe-Aumann approach, An additive model of decision making under risk and ambiguity, Dominance rationality: a unified approach, Strategic cautiousness as an expression of robustness to ambiguity, Another form of Chover's law of the iterated logarithm under sub-linear expectations, Asymmetric gain-loss reference dependence and attitudes toward uncertainty, Robust optimal risk sharing and risk premia in expanding pools, Savage for dummies and experts, Relative utilitarianism under uncertainty, Conjoint measurement in utility theory with incomplete product sets, Modeling agent's conditional preferences under objective ambiguity in Dempster-Shafer theory, Expected discounted utility, Improving and benchmarking of algorithms for decision making with lower previsions, Weak pseudo-rationalizability, Consequentialism and dynamic consistency in updating ambiguous beliefs, Stable behavior and generalized partition, Fair social decision under uncertainty and belief disagreements, Subjective contingencies and limited Bayesian updating, Structuring and assessing linear lexicographic utility, Structuring and assessing matrix-probability distributions, Preference orderings represented by coherent upper and lower conditional previsions, Controls, belief updating, and bias in medical RCTs, Optimal guessing: choice in complex environments, Mixing discount functions: implications for collective time preferences, Completeness and transitivity of preferences on mixture sets, Coherent lower previsions and Choquet integrals, Mean-dispersion preferences with a specific dispersion function, Sequential and quasi-perfect rationalizability in extensive games, The structure of variational preferences, A simple mean-dispersion model of ambiguity attitudes, An axiomatization of Choquet expected utility with cominimum independence, How do subjects view multiple sources of ambiguity?, Monetary equilibria and Knightian uncertainty, Logics for social behaviour: an editorial, Convex MV-algebras: many-valued logics meet decision theory, Arrovian aggregation of generalised expected-utility preferences: (im)possibility results by means of model theory, A comment on the axiomatics of the maxmin expected utility model, Unimodal density estimation using Bernstein polynomials, Differentiating ambiguity and ambiguity attitude, Axioms for preferences revealing subjective uncertainty and uncertainty aversion, A theory-based decision model, Fechner's strong utility model for choice among \(n > 2\) alternatives: risky lotteries, savage acts, and intertemporal payoffs, Belief consistency and invariant risk preferences, Static and dynamic quantile preferences, Uncertainty and binary stochastic choice, Expected utility without parsimony, Dynamic consistency of expected utility under non-classical (quantum) uncertainty, The interplay between transitivity and completeness: generalized \textsf{NaP}-preferences, The impossibility of experimental elicitation of subjective probabilities, Cardinal admissibility and optimability in finite nonarchimedean decision theory, A representation of partially ordered preferences, Regret theory: a new foundation, Dominance and admissibility without priors, An infinite-horizon model of nonmonotone utility smoothing, Expanding state space and extension of beliefs, A representation theorem for frequently irrational agents, Lexicographic choice functions, A Gleason-type theorem for any dimension based on a gambling formulation of quantum mechanics, Intertemporal utility smoothing under uncertainty, Foundations for optimal inattention, Risk analysis and decision theory: a bridge, Preferences over consumption and status, Necessary and possible preference structures, Anticipated regret as an explanation of uncertainty aversion, Second-order ambiguous beliefs, Conditional expected utility, Probabilism, representation theorems, and whether deliberation crowds out prediction, Do bets reveal beliefs? A unified perspective on state-dependent utility issues, Weak order polytopes., Recursive multiple-priors., Bayesian learning when chaos looms large, Harsanyi's social aggregation theorem for state-contingent alternatives, Models for pessimistic or optimistic decisions under different uncertain scenarios, Utilitarianism with and without expected utility, Preferences over all random variables: incompatibility of convexity and continuity, Robust decision making using a general utility set, Biased Bayesian learning with an application to the risk-free rate puzzle, Empirical relevance of ambiguity in first-price auctions, Multiple priors and comparative ignorance, Risk sharing in the small and in the large, Distributional compatibility for change of measures, Ambiguous persuasion, Savage's theorem under changing awareness, Expected multi-utility representations, Certainty independence and the separation of utility and beliefs, A theory of quantifiable beliefs, Abraham Wald's complete class theorem and Knightian uncertainty, Peter J. Hammond, Ranked additive utility representations of gambles: Old and new axiomatizations, Decision-foundations for properties of nonadditive measures: general state spaces or general outcome spaces, Sequentially continuous non-monotonic Choquet integrals, Games in context: equilibrium under ambiguity for belief functions, Dynamically consistent investment under model uncertainty: the robust forward criteria, Allan Gibbard, Coherent choice functions, desirability and indifference, Stochastic dynamic utilities and intertemporal preferences, Bayesian optimism, Conditional expected utility criteria for decision making under ignorance or objective ambiguity, Editorial: Introduction to quantum probability theory and its economic applications, A quantum-probabilistic paradigm: non-consequential reasoning and state dependence in investment choice, Subjective utility with upper and lower probabilities on finite states, Non-Archimedean subjective probabilities in decision theory and games, Credence for conclusions: a brief for Jeffrey's rule, Transitivity is equivalent to independence for states-additive SSB utilities, On the varieties of matrix probabilities in nonarchimedian decision theory, Collective decision under ignorance, The multiple priors of the open-minded decision maker, The weirdness theorem and the origin of quantum paradoxes, Uncertainty from the small to the large, Belief-averaging and relative utilitarianism, Decision-making with partial information, Ambiguity aversion and wealth effects, Revealed reasoning, Learning (to disagree?) in large worlds, Updating confidence in beliefs, Ambiguity under growing awareness, Coherent and Archimedean choice in general Banach spaces, Econometrics and decision theory, Maxmin expected utility over Savage acts with a set of priors, Jensen's inequality connected with a double random good, Uncertainty and compound lotteries: calibration, Dynamically consistent objective and subjective rationality, Objective rationality and recursive multiple priors, Cumulative dominance and probabilistic sophistication, An extension of a theorem of von Neumann and Morgenstern with an application to social choice theory, Gambling with death, Reverse Bayesianism: a generalization, More ambiguity aversion or more risk aversion?, Subjective probability and stochastic independence, Nonlinear desirability as a linear classification problem, Maxmin expected utility through statewise combinations, Identification and welfare evaluation in sequential sampling models, On the epistemic foundation for backward induction, Robustness issues under imprecise beliefs and preferences, Characterizing stochastically monotone functions by multiattribute utility theory, A theory of expected utility with nonadditive probability, Additive representations of non-additive measures and the Choquet integral, A neo\(^ 2\) Bayesian foundation of the maxmin value for two-person zero- sum games, A challenge to the compound lottery axiom: A two-stage normative structure and comparison to other theories, Several Bayesians: a review. (With discussion), Expected utility with purely subjective non-additive probabilities, Weighted and quadratic models of choice under uncertainty, Bayesian consistent belief selection, Subjective recursive expected utility, Preference, rationalizability and equilibrium, Consequentialist foundations for expected utility, Investment behavior under ambiguity: the case of pessimistic decision makers, The structure of SSB utilities for decision under uncertainty, Bayesian beliefs with stochastic monotonicity: an extension of Machina and Schmeidler, Probabilities and beliefs, Continuous subjective expected utility with non-additive probabilities, Subjective probability under additive aggregation of conditional preferences, Foundations of Bayesian theory, The shape of incomplete preferences, Non-transitive measurable utility for decision under uncertainty, Rank dependent utility for arbitrary consequence spaces, Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior, The power of paradox: some recent developments in interactive epistemology, Admissibility and common belief., Weighted sets of probabilities and minimax weighted expected regret: a new approach for representing uncertainty and making decisions, Ranking multidimensional alternatives and uncertain prospects, Variational Bewley preferences, Put-call parity and market frictions, Exchangeable capacities, parameters and incomplete theories, Normalized and strict NaP-preferences, Decision making under uncertainty comprising complete ignorance and probability, Subjective independence and concave expected utility, Dynamic choice in a complex world, ``Agreeing to disagree type results under ambiguity, State-dependent strength-of-preference, Using Choquet integral in economics, A new model for decisions under uncertainty, State-dependent SSB utility, Hurwicz expected utility and subjective sources, Subjective expected utility: A review of normative theories, Derived strengths of preference relations on coordinates, Purely subjective extended Bayesian models with Knightian unambiguity, Flexible Investitions- und Finanzplanung bei unvollkommen bekannten Übergangswahrscheinlichkeiten, Skew symmetric additive utility with finite states, Ambiguity aversion and ambiguity content in decision making under uncertainty, On neutrality of preferences on acts with respect to use of proxy outcomes, Transitivity in the small and in the large for states-additive SSB utilities, An overview of lexicographic choice under uncertainty, An axiomatic derivation of subjective probability, utility, and evaluation functions, Proper scoring rules for general decision models, Preferences representable by a lower expectation: Some characterizations, Attitude toward imprecise information, Nontransitive additive conjoint measurement, On the use of capacities in modeling uncertainty aversion and risk aversion, Agency theory: choice-based foundations of the parametrized distribution formulation, Lexicographic state-dependent subjective expected utility, Representation and aggregation of preferences under uncertainty, A generalization of the theory of subjective probability and expected utility, Subjective probabilities and utility with event-dependent preferences, Comments on Shafer's Perspectives on the theory and practice of belief functions, The ordinal Nash social welfare function, Recent developments in modeling preferences: Uncertainty and ambiguity, Ambiguity and decision modeling: A preference-based approach, Savage's theorem with a finite number of states, State-independent subjective expected lexicographic utility, From fuzzy set theory to non-additive probabilities: How have economists reacted!, Against conditionalization, Finite approximations to coherent choice, The foundations of statistics with black swans, Multisymmetric structures and non-expected utility, Foundations for a robust theory of decision making: The simple case. (Correction by Dirk Bültel), Subjectivity and correlation in randomized strategies, The Blackwell and Dubins theorem and Rényi's amount of information measure: Some applications, On the uses of the monotonicity and independence axioms in models of ambiguity aversion, A theory of subjective expected utility with vague preferences, A reformulation of the maxmin expected utility model with application to agency theory, Short-term financial planning with uncertain receipts and disbursements, Bayesian decision theory, rule utilitarianism, and Arrow's impossibility theorem, A theory of subjective compound lotteries, Supermodularity and preferences, Imprecise probabilistic beliefs as a context for decision-making under ambiguity, When is there state independence?, The ignorant observer, Loss aversion in a multi-period model, A model of minimal probabilistic belief revision, Living without state-independence of utilities, Preference structures and their numerical representations, Ambiguity through confidence functions, Projective expected utility, Subjective expected lexicographic utility with infinite state sets, Skew-symmetric additive representations of preferences, Additivity with multiple priors, The paradox of the Bayesian experts and state-dependent utility theory, Moral hazard and conditional preferences, A unified derivation of classical subjective expected utility models through cardinal utility, Subjective probability theory with continuous acts, On matrix probabilities in nonarchimedean decision theory, A variational model of preference under uncertainty
